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‘Excess mortality’ and the absence of evidence

ByRobert Silverman
Four vials of the Moderna / mRNA vaccine are grouped together on a pink table.

The Author

Robert Silverman is the pen name of a journalist and academic with extensive Australian and international experience in teaching, researching and writing on politics and history.

“The absence of evidence is not necessarily the evidence of absence.” So spoke Donald Rumsfeld, former US Defence Secretary and one of the leading architects of the 2003 war on Iraq. 

What Rumsfeld was getting at was the lack of evidence that the Iraqi government was developing weapons of mass destruction. The lack of evidence didn’t mean that Saddam didn’t have them, Rumsfeld and others argued, and Iraq was put to the sword on that basis. 

In fact, the evidence that Iraq did not have WMD was already there. It just did not suit the US to believe it.

A not-so-remote parallel is evidence that might connect mRNA vaccines to ‘excess mortality.’ Yet, like Rumsfeld, the politicians, ‘health experts’, and media commentators who bullied, coerced, or otherwise inveigled large chunks of the planet’s human population into vaccination are claiming the evidence is not there. 

This poses the question – when they are not looking for it, is this because the evidence is not there or because they don’t want it found? 

Consider post-vaccination deaths as a crime scene. The detectives gather and draw up a list of suspects. In this case, the ‘detectives’ are the same politicians, ‘health experts’ and media commentators who pushed people into vaccination in the first place. 

Circumstantial evidence indicates that the mRNA vaccines should be prime suspects, but they are not even on the list of suspects, and the suggestion that they should be is dismissed out of hand. 

This deliberate exclusion of a prime suspect is surely a giveaway. As Queen Gertrude remarks in Hamlet, of a stage performer who lacks credibility, “The lady doth protest too much, methinks.”

A photo of Flinders Street, Melbourne during the Victorian COVID-19 lockdown. In focus, the Flinders Street Station facade, and a digital billboard that reads, 'Stage 3 Restrictions are now in place. Go home'.
(Photo: Dave Hewison)

The failure to forensically investigate the cause of death allows the purveyors of vaccination to chant in a chorus that there is no scientific evidence linking vaccination to mortality. 

In fact, there has been some forensic research in Denmark and Germany, but more is needed to be more than indicative of a broader problem.

However, in a court of law, circumstantial evidence can be sufficient for conviction and in the case of post-vaccination deaths, the circumstantial evidence is mountainous. 

First is the unprecedented number of reported post-vaccination deaths in the US, the UK, and many other highly vaccinated countries. This has now resulted in an extraordinary surge in “excess mortality” reported in these countries.  

Here are some figures for the millions of “excess mortality” deaths reported worldwide. 

By May 5, 2022, the World Health Organisation (WHO) listed 14.9 million excess deaths above the expected baseline. The increases in 2020-21 ranged nationally from 11.3 to 15.6 per cent. “Directly or indirectly,” the WHO ascribes these deaths to “the pandemic” in general. 

A woman lies in a hospital bed, surrounded by two medical workers dressed in white protective medical PPE. All subjects are in an enclosed room. A sign on the front window reads, 'Restricted Area: Authorised Personnel Only'.
(Photo: Mongkolchon Akesin)

In Australia, the Bureau of Statistics (ABS) recorded 128.797 deaths between January and August 31, 2022, or 18,671 (17 per cent), more than the baseline average. In August alone, 17,419 deaths were 1926 (12.4 per cent) above the baseline average. Excess mortality in Australia usually falls between 1-2 per cent.  

The Actuaries Institute considers population growth and an ageing population and presents slightly different figures from the ABS. Based on its analysis, the actual figure for excess mortality for the first eight months of 2022 would be 13 per cent.  

Of the 18,671 deaths listed as excess mortality, 7,722 were caused by Covid-19, it claims. However, this still leaves 10,944 non-Covid deaths, which no one seems able to explain, including the spokesperson for the Actuaries Institute, Karen Cutter. 

Nevertheless, whether the true figure is 17 per cent or 13 per cent, the excess mortality rate for the first eight months of 2022 is still “incredibly high,” Ms Cutter said. She admits being unable to explain it but is adamant – even though she cannot prove it – that mRNA vaccines are not the cause.  

As quoted on the Our World in Data website (‘Excess mortality during Coronavirus pandemic’),

– modelling by the Economist magazine indicates that the total number of global excess deaths is two to four times higher than the reported number of deaths from Covid-19. 


One singular aspect of all the statistics is the rising number of the media’s “mysterious” deaths of healthy young people. Of course, the ‘experts’ cannot explain these deaths either, except for myocarditis, known to be a direct consequence of the vaccination.  

Otherwise, they ignore the possibility that vaccination is a prime cause of the deaths of young people with no known health complications.

As for the circumstantial evidence, Open Vaers – a summary of the official US Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) reporting system – outlined a listing on November 25, 2022, showing 2,368,670 reports of ‘adverse consequences’ of vaccination, including 32,508 deaths.  

In Europe, according to Eurostat monitoring, excess mortality climbed to 16 per cent in July 2022, compared to seven per cent in June. For example, the excess mortality rate in Spain was 37 per cent in July, more than double the EU rate; the figure was 33 per cent in Cyprus and 31 per cent in Greece.  

The vaccination rate in all these countries includes 67 per cent in the US and 74 per cent in the UK. 

In Australia, 97.8 per cent of the adult population (over 16 years of age) have had one vaccination, 96.1 had two vaccinations and 68.4 per cent had three vaccinations, giving a mean average of 84/85 per cent ‘vaccinated.’ 

As the one new element in the surge – explosion – in excess mortality since 2019, vaccination clearly should be regarded as a prime suspect. 

Some small forensic clues in reports from Norway and Germany have some bearing on the current situation.

In 2021 a review by the Norwegian Medicines Agency (NMA) concluded that there was a causal link between the Pfizer vaccine and death. 

Out of the 100 deaths examined, it was considered “likely” in 10 cases, “possible” in 26 cases and “unlikely” in 59.  

In Germany, a small-scale research report published on November 22 found that 5 of 25 deaths within 20 days were directly caused by vaccination.

The NMA specifically warned that “the benefits of vaccination for very frail elderly people with very short life expectancy should therefore be carefully assessed against the associated risks, and it may often be better not to vaccinate.” 

The message was not heeded in many countries, including Australia, where 80-100 per cent of elderly people living in aged care homes were double or triple vaccinated in 2021, where the post-vaccination death rate was high.   

Australia’s Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA), in its October 6, 2022, newsletter, said it had investigated 939 post-vaccination deaths and could link only 14 to the Covid-19 vaccines, 13 of them to the Vaxzevria vaccine (formerly AstraZeneca).   

A mother with her child wait outside a busy queue at a vaccination clinic in St Kilda, Melbourne.
(Photo: Christie Cooper)

The TGA describes how it reaches its conclusions in this passage: “For each report we receive, a team of staff including doctors and nurses consider the strength of the evidence for a link between vaccination and the condition that caused the death.”

The TGA does not conduct autopsies, request coronial investigations, or make formal declarations of the cause of death. “Thus, the causes of death were not forensically determined based on the views of a staff team.”  

‘What’s behind the mystery of thousands of excess deaths this summer?’ The Guardian newspaper asked on September 13, 2022. Answering its question, the Guardian suggests heart and lung, cancers, dementia, and Alzheimer’s disease, but there is “no one clear reason that jumps out.”

Ms Cutter argues that if people suffer strokes, heart attacks and other fatal conditions several months after recovering from Covid-19, which by her implication, is the long-term cause. 

Other causes aggravated by Covid-19 include dementia, cancers, ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease.  

In Melbourne the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) ‘Factlab’ claimed there is “no credible evidence” linking vaccines to excess mortality in Australia or overseas. 

It claimed half of the excess mortality deaths in Australia were due to Covid-19 itself. At the same time, “for much of the remainder, infectious diseases or the after-effects of the Covid infection were more likely reasons.” 

It says the “evidence” does not suggest vaccines are to blame. Tim Adair, a researcher at the University of Melbourne’s School of Population and Global Health, says the excess mortality numbers “don’t shed any light on vaccine-related deaths.” 

Factlab concludes that it is “not possible to conclude from these population level estimates that vaccines were to blame.” It is not possible to conclude that vaccines were not to blame. 

Factlab is short on facts and strong on insinuation and seemingly anxious to exculpate vaccination without having the evidence at hand.  

The vaccine manufacturers’ evidence needs to be inserted here of the wide range of possible vaccination consequences, far more extensive than Australian politicians, health ‘experts’, and the media have been willing to let on to the general public. 

They include many of the conditions listed by the actuary as a delayed response to Covid-19 infection.   

In the US, there have been more ‘adverse consequences’ from mRNA vaccines since 2021 than the total number recorded for all vaccines authorised since VAERS began keeping records in 1990.  

Responding to a Freedom of Information application made in 2021, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said it would be able to release 500 pages a month of the 329,000 Pfizer clinical trial documents it held. 

This would take 56 years, but with the number of documents subsequently increased to 450,000, the FDA’s time frame would have extended to 75 years.  

On January 7, 2022, a Texas judge ordered the FDA to release 55,000 documents a month, a process that would reduce the time frame to eight months. 

The released documents show that 158,893 post-vaccination ‘adverse events were reported in the first three months of the global ‘rollout’ (December 1 2020 – February 28 2021). 

Pfizer’s category of 1291 ‘Adverse Events of Special Interest (AESI)’ included the death of 1223 people in the US, the UK, the EU, and other countries, classified by the company as “side effects”, which it argued were not necessarily linked to use of the vaccine. 

For the non-medical specialist, the more recognisable ‘adverse events’ on Pfizer’s list include heart attacks and other cardiac problems, pulmonary embolisms, deep vein and atrial thrombosis, strokes caused by blood clots in the brain, neurological events (including petit mal and seizure epilepsy, Guillain Barre syndrome, multiple sclerosis/multiple sclerosis relapse and meningitis), acute kidney injury, acute respiratory failure, acute encephalitis, facial paralysis (Bell’s Palsy), Addison’s Disease, anaphylactic shock, arthritis, shingles, haematological disorders (including haemorrhages) spontaneous abortion and premature birth. All by which was hidden from Australia’s heavily vaccinated population by governments and the media.  

A line of people wait outside the steps of the Melbourne Convention Centre vaccination clinic during the Covid-19 pandemic in Melbourne.
(Photo: Christie Cooper)

Readers wondering how an “unapproved medical product” authorised only for emergency use can be fully approved before the completion of clinical trials, as the Pfizer vaccine was – should know that the FDA, once entirely taxpayer-funded, is a major recipient of funding by the pharmaceutical sector. 

Almost half of its current $5.9 billion budget is paid as ‘user fees’ by the corporations whose products it is asked to licence. 

The governments and ‘health experts’ who herded people into vaccination through a campaign of fear, bullying and intimidation have a vested interest in not looking for evidence that might expose them as the architects of one of the greatest crimes against humanity in world history.

Back to Mr Rumsfeld: “Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence,” the evidence is not there, but like the architects of the war on Iraq, why would the purveyors of mass vaccination want to dig it up? 

Best to keep chanting “the evidence is not there” in the hope that the surge in excess mortality won’t continue into coming years. The sheer numbers of the dead already indicate that there is a terrible problem here that stands in urgent need of proper scientific examination.  

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